Making Money Through

LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman is undoubtedly one of the Valley’s most prolific angel investors. Hoffman has made angel investments in Digg, One King’s Lane, Facebook, Flickr, Last.fm, Ning, Six Apart and Zynga. Last November, Hoffman joined VC firm Greylock as a partner, making all his future angel and seed investments through the VC fund. Today at TechCrunch Disrupt, Greylock Partners and Hoffman have announced a $20 million fund solely for seed and angel investments.

Hoffman will be managing partner of the fund, which is called the Greylock Discovery Fund and is part of the VC firm’s 13th fund raised last fall, totaling $575 million. Hoffman and his team will make investments anywhere from $25,000 to $500,000 in startups in the technology space. Any Greylock partner can make investments out of the fund, and the investments don’t need to go through the entire partnership approval process.

We are told the funding will be mainly put towards investments that don’t result in a board seat at the company. Hoffman has a great track record of angel investing, making big bets on Zynga, Facebook and more, and Greylock is essentially giving him the opportunity to do what he does best (besides, of course, founding companies like LinkedIn and PayPal).

As super angels (like Hoffman) are now challenging venture capital firms like Greylock, as startups take angel funding, launch without much investment, and don’t reach out to VCs until late in the game when startup valuations are higher and returns are lower.

Because of this pressure, VC firms are starting to respond with their own early stage funds, which is what Greylock is doing with Hoffman. Some venture firms like Andreessen Horowitz make both seed investments as well as larger infusions in startups.

Here are are live notes from the panel:

MA: How did you miss Twitter?

DS: We feel happy about out bets, but feel great for Twitter.

ES: Here’s an example of a a company that didn’t know how big it would be.

DS: That’s a great point; people have said that about LinkedIn, Facebook, Pandora.

ES: Let’s go through some of those.

DS: We spent a o lot of time talking about how to be intelligently contrarian over what we should invest in. Pandora is a great example of this, but now it’s doing great. re: going public-it depends on whether it’s the right time for the company to go public.

RH: You have to think about whether it’s a world class founder, and if you win, is the market place big. When you make early-stage bets, that’s what you are looking at.

MA: What are you looking at now?

RH: I recently invested in Shopkick, when you get deep into shopping experience, Mobile is going to be big. I feel strongly that they will be successful. I think the consumerfication of the enterprise is very interesting.

ES: When you look at the companies you are investing in, are they tackling hard problems?

RH: It’s very difficult to build a service that reaches massive amounts of people.

MA: Can we talk about Cuil? What went wrong?

DS: Can’t say, at the ends of the day we invest in a lot of companies; some do well. You take risks.

MA: Let’s talk about Digg. Which way are they going to go?

DS: I don’t think Digg is happy with how the last launch went off, but they are moving forward. Now can rapidly innovate, even if it’s small changes. You are going to see more and more of that. Matt Williams, who they brought on as CEO, is going to be great for the company.

RH: If you are in motion as a company, this is a good thing.

DS: Everyone hits these trouble points, but it’s how you power through them.

ES: Can you talk about the growth of LinkedIn? What were the inflection points?

RH: In the first year, it was how do we get people to believe in us. How do we make enough money to break even? There is always a serious challenge. Right now, we are focusing on how we provide and convey the business intelligence necessary.

DS: All along the way, pick great partners that will be there through endless battle.

ES: Can you talk about Facebook and LinkedIn?

RH: I believe in different social networks for different parts of your life. What does a connection mean? That’s a differentiating point. Facebook is about the social factor, Zynga games, sharing photos and more.

MA: The idea that people want social networks for different things doesn’t make that much sense. How is LinkedIn managing to stay alive as more use Facebook for resumes etc.

RH: We are growing each month.

You would think that Californians had learned their lesson by now.

Remember Darrell Issa? Issa, who ran against Barbara Boxer in 1998, but lost his party's nomination to Matt Fong, the California Treasurer. In that race, Issa spent $12 million of his own money and, after losing, went on to get elected to the House in 2000. Issa actually stands to become the head of the House Government Operations Committee if Republicans take control of the Congress in he next election.

Issa, you may recall, gave Californians Arnold Schwarzenegger as their governor. Issa contributed $1.6 million toward the recall of Gray Davis and presumed he would be his party's nominee to replace Davis. Then, following the recall of Davis, the party tapped Issa on the shoulder and said, "Your work is done." Schwarzenegger became governor. And California, like the rest of the country, sank into even worse economic shape than when Davis was in office.

Now, California Republicans want you to refocus. The man who had no governmental experience whatsoever, yet who went on to become the chief executive, was really a highly successful movie actor with little aptitude for the job. That may not have been the best idea. What California needs now is a businessman. Or businesswoman. Enter Meg Whitman.

Beyond being another figure in a business success story who now believes that power is her next entitlement and governing is the next challenging hobby, Whitman, like Schwarzenegger, has no government experience. That is problematic for two reasons. One is that California is a remarkably diverse state. Its near hemispheric political divide between its northern and southern constituencies makes politics in the state capitol very complicated. In these economic times, to send another candidate to Sacramento who simply mouths that "Government needs to be run like a business" would be disastrous.

The second issue is Whitman's opponent. In my opinion, Jerry Brown is one of the most visionary and dedicated public servants I have ever encountered during my life time. Smart, tough, experienced, committed, Brown wasn't making a fortune for himself these past four decades. He was serving the people of California. The attack ad that Whitman shows of Bill Clinton laying into Brown is unfair, inaccurate and repugnant. Primary races can be bloodier than the general election and Brown versus Clinton exemplifies that. But Clinton is guilty of a bit of hyperbole when he states that Brown spent down California's surplus while in office. The most casual examination of the record shows that, in classic California fashion, a loss of property tax revenues forced Brown to spend a good deal of the state's surplus, but not all of it. Californians, with their preposterous property tax laws, never seem to recognize that a loss of revenue to the counties and/or cities usually spells undue pressure on the state to find that money elsewhere. Even Schwarzenegger, the fitness role model, was reduced to selling state park land to make up for huge gaps in his budget. Clinton in full attack mode is a sight to behold, but not one Californians should base this race on.

In their websites and in their official statements, both Whitman and Brown say the usual things about jobs, taxes and education. But it is in the area of jobs from clean energy technologies and in pension reform that Brown holds the clearest edge. California has, through necessity, been a leader in environmental policy-making. Spend any time in California and see how many hybrid cars are on the road. How many wind turbines are in operation. How much photo-voltaic equipment is already in place. Brown knows that this is just the beginning. Where Whitman and other business types believe that markets themselves will lead us where we need to go, Brown knows that government must lead. The push to bring as much of the American power grid into the renewable market must come from government. The money we spent on Iraq alone might well have begun to solve this problem once and for all.

Whitman the businesswoman lacks the political skill to bring the pension issue into the 21st century. Unions and pensioners must be brought to the table for talks that recognize them as entitled on one hand yet partners with taxpayers on the other. Brown will do that. And he must before the pension problem in California crushes the government into insolvency.

All governments need to be run in a more business-like manner and now more than ever. But government should never literally be run like a business. Business is about cold numbers, strict adherence to bottom lines and the ascent of those with the greatest skills and advantages. Governing requires a humanism that we find largely absent in the business world of today. It calls for skills that the business world often overlooks or shuns. Governing requires the ability not to follow spreadsheets and marketing advice but to weigh all of the relevant information and decide what is best for all of California in both the long and short term.

There is no one better for that job than Jerry Brown.

------

A post script regarding the New York governor's race. Voter dissatisfaction is real and valid. But Palladino versus Cuomo is a nearly impossible distortion of that reality. The difference between Carl Palladino and Andrew Cuomo, in terms of effectiveness, talent and experience, is the between a water pistol and a fire hose. A pea shooter and a cannon. When Eliot Spitzer was elected, a great man became governor. That man faltered and was replaced by an interim governor who has struggled. Now, New Yorkers can return another brilliant, hard-working public servant to the governor's office by electing Andrew Cuomo.

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LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman is undoubtedly one of the Valley’s most prolific angel investors. Hoffman has made angel investments in Digg, One King’s Lane, Facebook, Flickr, Last.fm, Ning, Six Apart and Zynga. Last November, Hoffman joined VC firm Greylock as a partner, making all his future angel and seed investments through the VC fund. Today at TechCrunch Disrupt, Greylock Partners and Hoffman have announced a $20 million fund solely for seed and angel investments.

Hoffman will be managing partner of the fund, which is called the Greylock Discovery Fund and is part of the VC firm’s 13th fund raised last fall, totaling $575 million. Hoffman and his team will make investments anywhere from $25,000 to $500,000 in startups in the technology space. Any Greylock partner can make investments out of the fund, and the investments don’t need to go through the entire partnership approval process.

We are told the funding will be mainly put towards investments that don’t result in a board seat at the company. Hoffman has a great track record of angel investing, making big bets on Zynga, Facebook and more, and Greylock is essentially giving him the opportunity to do what he does best (besides, of course, founding companies like LinkedIn and PayPal).

As super angels (like Hoffman) are now challenging venture capital firms like Greylock, as startups take angel funding, launch without much investment, and don’t reach out to VCs until late in the game when startup valuations are higher and returns are lower.

Because of this pressure, VC firms are starting to respond with their own early stage funds, which is what Greylock is doing with Hoffman. Some venture firms like Andreessen Horowitz make both seed investments as well as larger infusions in startups.

Here are are live notes from the panel:

MA: How did you miss Twitter?

DS: We feel happy about out bets, but feel great for Twitter.

ES: Here’s an example of a a company that didn’t know how big it would be.

DS: That’s a great point; people have said that about LinkedIn, Facebook, Pandora.

ES: Let’s go through some of those.

DS: We spent a o lot of time talking about how to be intelligently contrarian over what we should invest in. Pandora is a great example of this, but now it’s doing great. re: going public-it depends on whether it’s the right time for the company to go public.

RH: You have to think about whether it’s a world class founder, and if you win, is the market place big. When you make early-stage bets, that’s what you are looking at.

MA: What are you looking at now?

RH: I recently invested in Shopkick, when you get deep into shopping experience, Mobile is going to be big. I feel strongly that they will be successful. I think the consumerfication of the enterprise is very interesting.

ES: When you look at the companies you are investing in, are they tackling hard problems?

RH: It’s very difficult to build a service that reaches massive amounts of people.

MA: Can we talk about Cuil? What went wrong?

DS: Can’t say, at the ends of the day we invest in a lot of companies; some do well. You take risks.

MA: Let’s talk about Digg. Which way are they going to go?

DS: I don’t think Digg is happy with how the last launch went off, but they are moving forward. Now can rapidly innovate, even if it’s small changes. You are going to see more and more of that. Matt Williams, who they brought on as CEO, is going to be great for the company.

RH: If you are in motion as a company, this is a good thing.

DS: Everyone hits these trouble points, but it’s how you power through them.

ES: Can you talk about the growth of LinkedIn? What were the inflection points?

RH: In the first year, it was how do we get people to believe in us. How do we make enough money to break even? There is always a serious challenge. Right now, we are focusing on how we provide and convey the business intelligence necessary.

DS: All along the way, pick great partners that will be there through endless battle.

ES: Can you talk about Facebook and LinkedIn?

RH: I believe in different social networks for different parts of your life. What does a connection mean? That’s a differentiating point. Facebook is about the social factor, Zynga games, sharing photos and more.

MA: The idea that people want social networks for different things doesn’t make that much sense. How is LinkedIn managing to stay alive as more use Facebook for resumes etc.

RH: We are growing each month.

You would think that Californians had learned their lesson by now.

Remember Darrell Issa? Issa, who ran against Barbara Boxer in 1998, but lost his party's nomination to Matt Fong, the California Treasurer. In that race, Issa spent $12 million of his own money and, after losing, went on to get elected to the House in 2000. Issa actually stands to become the head of the House Government Operations Committee if Republicans take control of the Congress in he next election.

Issa, you may recall, gave Californians Arnold Schwarzenegger as their governor. Issa contributed $1.6 million toward the recall of Gray Davis and presumed he would be his party's nominee to replace Davis. Then, following the recall of Davis, the party tapped Issa on the shoulder and said, "Your work is done." Schwarzenegger became governor. And California, like the rest of the country, sank into even worse economic shape than when Davis was in office.

Now, California Republicans want you to refocus. The man who had no governmental experience whatsoever, yet who went on to become the chief executive, was really a highly successful movie actor with little aptitude for the job. That may not have been the best idea. What California needs now is a businessman. Or businesswoman. Enter Meg Whitman.

Beyond being another figure in a business success story who now believes that power is her next entitlement and governing is the next challenging hobby, Whitman, like Schwarzenegger, has no government experience. That is problematic for two reasons. One is that California is a remarkably diverse state. Its near hemispheric political divide between its northern and southern constituencies makes politics in the state capitol very complicated. In these economic times, to send another candidate to Sacramento who simply mouths that "Government needs to be run like a business" would be disastrous.

The second issue is Whitman's opponent. In my opinion, Jerry Brown is one of the most visionary and dedicated public servants I have ever encountered during my life time. Smart, tough, experienced, committed, Brown wasn't making a fortune for himself these past four decades. He was serving the people of California. The attack ad that Whitman shows of Bill Clinton laying into Brown is unfair, inaccurate and repugnant. Primary races can be bloodier than the general election and Brown versus Clinton exemplifies that. But Clinton is guilty of a bit of hyperbole when he states that Brown spent down California's surplus while in office. The most casual examination of the record shows that, in classic California fashion, a loss of property tax revenues forced Brown to spend a good deal of the state's surplus, but not all of it. Californians, with their preposterous property tax laws, never seem to recognize that a loss of revenue to the counties and/or cities usually spells undue pressure on the state to find that money elsewhere. Even Schwarzenegger, the fitness role model, was reduced to selling state park land to make up for huge gaps in his budget. Clinton in full attack mode is a sight to behold, but not one Californians should base this race on.

In their websites and in their official statements, both Whitman and Brown say the usual things about jobs, taxes and education. But it is in the area of jobs from clean energy technologies and in pension reform that Brown holds the clearest edge. California has, through necessity, been a leader in environmental policy-making. Spend any time in California and see how many hybrid cars are on the road. How many wind turbines are in operation. How much photo-voltaic equipment is already in place. Brown knows that this is just the beginning. Where Whitman and other business types believe that markets themselves will lead us where we need to go, Brown knows that government must lead. The push to bring as much of the American power grid into the renewable market must come from government. The money we spent on Iraq alone might well have begun to solve this problem once and for all.

Whitman the businesswoman lacks the political skill to bring the pension issue into the 21st century. Unions and pensioners must be brought to the table for talks that recognize them as entitled on one hand yet partners with taxpayers on the other. Brown will do that. And he must before the pension problem in California crushes the government into insolvency.

All governments need to be run in a more business-like manner and now more than ever. But government should never literally be run like a business. Business is about cold numbers, strict adherence to bottom lines and the ascent of those with the greatest skills and advantages. Governing requires a humanism that we find largely absent in the business world of today. It calls for skills that the business world often overlooks or shuns. Governing requires the ability not to follow spreadsheets and marketing advice but to weigh all of the relevant information and decide what is best for all of California in both the long and short term.

There is no one better for that job than Jerry Brown.

------

A post script regarding the New York governor's race. Voter dissatisfaction is real and valid. But Palladino versus Cuomo is a nearly impossible distortion of that reality. The difference between Carl Palladino and Andrew Cuomo, in terms of effectiveness, talent and experience, is the between a water pistol and a fire hose. A pea shooter and a cannon. When Eliot Spitzer was elected, a great man became governor. That man faltered and was replaced by an interim governor who has struggled. Now, New Yorkers can return another brilliant, hard-working public servant to the governor's office by electing Andrew Cuomo.

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managing your personal finance

A lot of people are unemployed in this country, 14.9 million as of the latest BLS release a couple of days ago, and for some of those people, this has become what is coyly referred to as ‘the entrepreneurial moment’, the ‘ah-ha’ light-bulb realization that if they don’t create a job for themselves, there will be no job, no income, no mortgage payment, no groceries, no light, no heat, no gas for the car, nuthin’. Since 2008, over 5 million jobs have been lost, many of which will never, ever come back.

Welcome to Labor Day, 2010.

Some of these ‘lost’ jobs have been outsourced overseas. Some have just been cut. Some companies are using their cash to invest in technologies which will insure that they will never have to hire these folks back, at least not with the skills that they had when they were given a cardboard box and five minutes to empty their desks and get out the front door.

If there are people out there who have or are considering building their own ‘life raft’ it would surprise absolutely no one; though for some folks, entrepreneurship is so scary, they can’t imagine anything other than hiring on to someone else’s deal, no matter how horrible it is.

Sometimes, though, you don’t have any choice. One thing to remember, is that many of the most successful entrepreneurs in this country have not invented fuel cells, high tech photovoltaic films, high speed transit, a cure for cancer (or the common cold), or the answer for peace in our time. They are cleaning houses, making pizza, fixing computers/ipods/iphones/cars/furnaces/plumbing/household electric, managing other people’s systems, giving advice, making clothing for people who are outside the common size ranges in the stores.

Not exactly operating a basement boiler room financial situation, doing crazy financial stuff, or stirring up the pot on international finance.

At its most basic, it’s local; at its most interesting, it might even be regional. But it is still person to person; it’s still me doing business with you. Face to face. My hands and brain doing stuff to help you. Some of this is amazingly low tech – some of it is almost medieval.

This week’s fascinating story comes from the New York Times about a family of knife sharpeners who have thrown a new curve on this ancient of trades by providing two sets of knives to butchers, restaurants, food services (in Yankee Stadium, for heaven’s sake), and calling on a weekly basis to pick up the used set and providing the newly sharpened set.

Anyone who does any real work in a kitchen at all knows that your most important tools are a good set of knives and a good frying and sauce pan. With those three things, you can do almost anything (and yes, I have made cookies in the bottom of a frying pan; thank you for asking), but if your knives are dull, cutting anything becomes horrible work and you can injure yourself badly. “Every week, the company visits more than 800 clients and collects more than 8,000 knives to be replaced with freshly sharpened blades. The service costs $2.50 to $3.50 per knife.

The business started servicing mainly butchers and meatpackers, in territories handed down from father to son. To preserve the business for his children, Mr. Ambrosi expanded it to restaurants and even Yankee Stadium, in some cases deviating from long-held tradition. Many cooks and chefs take personal pride in their knives and their ability to maintain them, and would hesitate to release them to anyone else’s care. But sharpening a knife takes time and skill — and not every chef has both.”

Having a skill and honing (sorry) that so that you can provide something that someone else can not (or will not) do, whether it is being an electrician, a plumber, a welder, a knife sharpener, a shoe repair shop, a hair dresser, whatever it is – can make the difference in today’s international economy between being able to make a living for your family and holding your head in your hands. One of America’s biggest mistakes as far as education is concerned (and others might just argue with me) is that we “jumped the shark” in terms of absorbing people coming out of colleges.

Since the 1980s, kids coming out of college have had fewer and lower level opportunities. Jobs which absorbed high schoolers, now require a 2 or 4 year degree; job that required a college degree started to require a masters degree; some jobs which required a college degree and some internal training, now require advanced degrees – I even know of jobs that now require a legal degree to be hired which 30 years ago required a college degree and passing a test. So much emphasis was placed on going to college – and vocational training and the trades were so downgraded and derided that any family with a kid with two brain cells to rub together would not even THINK of encouraging that kid to go into the trades, unless the family was already in the business.

We’re now at a situation where companies, which shot themselves in the foot by sending skilled jobs overseas and now want to bring them back because costs overseas have risen and/or they are tired of their intellectual property being stolen and sold to others, can’t find the skills they want. Not to put too fine a point on this – those same companies have not done any training themselves; nor are they willing to do so. They got into the habit a long time ago of pushing the investment in training off on others. The government for one.

The other, which has willingly and consistently provided training in the trades for years are the unions. Organized labor. The Great Satan of the industrial world. The guys everyone loves to hate. The organizations which, according to many employers, stand in their way of succeeding in business.

But still, the organization which has kept skills alive in this country despite outsourcing, overseas sourcing, attacks from business and government, and general antipathy from great swaths of the American population in certain parts of the country.

So. On this frankly very sad Labor Day, 2010, I’d like to thank the American Labor Movement for remembering what America and Americans do best and what we need to do on an increasing basis if we are to put people back to work – or if we are to have businesses to call our own: Do stuff with our hands.

Thanks folks. You’re not perfection, but you’re willing to invest in Americans.

Happy Labor Day

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9:08 am PST: The judge has thrown the book at Lindsay. Her bail was revoked. She was handcuffed and taken into custody. A probation hearing was set for October 22nd. Lindsay appeared stunned. 8:22 am PDT: Lindsay has entered the ...

Diane Sawyer: ABC World <b>News</b> Goes Home: Looking for What Works in <b>...</b>

We at ABC's World News are heading out to search for innovative ideas that are helping turn the economy around. Real change is often born out of a simple act. And one ripple can lead to a powerful transformation.

<b>News</b> Roundup: &#39;Modern Family&#39; Wins the Ratings, Lifetime Renews <b>...</b>

Last night's big ratings winner also won big at the Emmys last month: The 'Modern Family' topped the night with its season 2 premiere, which.

big white booty

BREAKING <b>NEWS</b>: Lindsay Lohan Ordered Back To Jail; Bail Revoked <b>...</b>

9:08 am PST: The judge has thrown the book at Lindsay. Her bail was revoked. She was handcuffed and taken into custody. A probation hearing was set for October 22nd. Lindsay appeared stunned. 8:22 am PDT: Lindsay has entered the ...

Diane Sawyer: ABC World <b>News</b> Goes Home: Looking for What Works in <b>...</b>

We at ABC's World News are heading out to search for innovative ideas that are helping turn the economy around. Real change is often born out of a simple act. And one ripple can lead to a powerful transformation.

<b>News</b> Roundup: &#39;Modern Family&#39; Wins the Ratings, Lifetime Renews <b>...</b>

Last night's big ratings winner also won big at the Emmys last month: The 'Modern Family' topped the night with its season 2 premiere, which.

Making Money Cash

On September 2nd, 2010 I had the chance to be a part of an event that signaled a look inside of the type of programming that will lead to this economy turning around. The number one issue in the minds of all America and around the world is the economy. It seems as if the economy has stabilized but with the housing market still showing no signs of improvement, consumer spending still stagnant, top line growth for businesses being nonexistent, and the banks have made living room chairs of their surpluses of cash...the main thing that can fix all of these problems is more jobs! If we had more jobs there would be more people to purchase homes, more money to be spent, the top line of businesses could see growth making hiring possible, and more capital flowing around the economy making the banks less timid to lend money.

People are looking far and wide for job creation and job placement programming that are effective. As a community activist who constantly works with and refers people to programming that can assist someone to obtain gainful employment, I have seen many that are good and many that are not so good. I didn't expect to find one of the most successful programs that I have ever seen at a food bank of all places!

That is right...a food bank...the Community Food Bank of New Jersey. This is no ordinary food bank. Here are some of the things they have been able to accomplish:

• They have produced and served over 400 million pounds of food since its inception in the 1970s.

• They feed over one million people in New Jersey every year.

• They feed people in 19 of the 21 counties in New Jersey

• They average serving over 21 million pounds of food per year, but because of the recession last year they served over 34 million pounds of food.

• They feed over 1300 children per day Monday through Friday in their afterschool program and over 250,000 children per year.

• They effectively stretch each donated one dollar to purchase $11 worth of food.

One might be asking, "This is great but how does this provide jobs?" On September 2nd, Kareem Hertzog, Executive Director of The Optimum Institute of Economic Empowerment, and I were invited to keynote a graduation ceremony of their food service training academy. They take people from all walks of life that live in the New Jersey area and train them for careers in the food service industry. All of their graduates earn their skills by going through a rigorous 14 week, all hands on, on the job training program that effectively prepares the students for exactly what they will be doing on the job when they begin work. The classroom time is limited as they are too busy in the kitchens assisting to produce over 5,000 pounds of food per week. Over 90% of their students find employment because of their obtained experience in this program. The price for this program to the students is zero! They each were able to receive a $4,000 scholarship through a collaboration of private donors who all believe in the program and in the people in their community.

On this day they saw their largest graduating class to date...over 30 students. We saw students, many who were living in halfway houses, smiling bright because they were offered hope and access to actually find employment. They now had acquired culinary skills that they could take around the world into any restaurant. The smiles, the hugs, the outpour of family member support, and the promise of a new day were all things that touched my soul on this day because I was witnessing something truly tremendous. I thank Executive Chef Paul Kapner for allowing us to be a part of this day and urge you to please continue with your fabulous work. It is needed and you are truly making an impact.

Don't take my word for it...watch the video below to see the type of day we had.

→ Washington’s Blog

Everyone knows that the American consumer is deleveraging … living more frugally, and paying down debt.

Right?

Well, actually, as CNBC’s Diana Olick pointed out in April, many consumers are stopping their mortgage payments, and then blowing the money they would usually pay towards their mortgage on luxuries:

I opened up a big can of debate Monday, when I repeated some chatter around that consumer spending might be juiced by all those folks not paying their mortgages.

They have a little extra cash, so they’re spending it at the mall.

Some of you thought the premise had some validity, others, as is often the case, told me I was an idiot.

Well after the blog went up Erin Burnett put the question to Economist Robert Shiller, of the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index, during an interview on Street Signs.

He didn’t deny the possibility, and added:

“In some sense there might be a silver lining in that.”

Then I decided to ask Mark Zandi, of Moody’s Economy.com, who will often shoot down my more ridiculous theories.

I asked him if this was a crazy idea:

No, not crazy. With some 6 million homeowners not making mortgage payments (some loans are in trial mod programs and paying something but still in delinquency or default status) , this is probably freeing up roughly $8 billion in cash each month. Assuming this cash is spent (not too bad an assumption), it amounts to nearly one percent of consumer spending. The saving rate is also much lower as a result. The impact on spending growth is less significant as that is a function of the change in the number of homeowners not making payments.

I’m not sure I would say this is juicing up spending, but resulting in more spending than would be the case otherwise.

Many of these stressed homeowners (due to unemployment) are reducing their spending, just not as much as they would have if they were still making their mortgage payment.

Okay, so 6 million American homeowners are not being super frugal about either paying their mortgages or saving the money for another investment.

But surely the hundreds of millions of other Americans are reducing debt and deleveraging, right?

In fact, as the Wall Street Journal notes today, the overwhelming majority of debt reduction by consumers is not due to voluntary debt reduction, but due to defaulting on their debts and having them involuntarily written down by the banks:

The sharp decline in U.S. household debt over the past couple years has conjured up images of people across the country tightening their belts in order to pay down their mortgages and credit-card balances. A closer look, though, suggests a different picture: Some are defaulting, while the rest aren’t making much of a dent in their debts at all.

First, consider household debt. Over the two years ending June 2010, the total value of home-mortgage debt and consumer credit outstanding has fallen by about $610 billion, to $12.6 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s an annualized decline of about 2.3%, which is pretty impressive given the fact that such debts grew at an annualized rate in excess of 10% over the previous decade.

There are two ways, though, that the debts can decline: People can pay off existing loans, or they can renege on the loans, forcing the lender to charge them off. As it happens, the latter accounted for almost all the decline. Over the two years ending June 2010, banks and other lenders charged off a total of about $588 billion in mortgage and consumer loans, according to data from the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

That means consumers managed to shave off only $22 billion in debt through the kind of belt-tightening we typically envision. In other words, in the absence of defaults, they would have achieved an annualized decline of only 0.08%.

The Journal graphically shows that virtually all debt reduction is due to loan charge offs:

Karl Denninger notes:

From a peak in 2005 of $13.1 trillion in equity in residential real estate, that value has now diminished by approximately half to $6.67 trillion!Yet outstanding household debt has in fact increased from $11.7 trillion to $13.5 trillion today.

Folks, those who claim that we have “de-levered” are lying.

Not only has the consumer not de-levered but business is actually gearing up – putting the lie to any claim that they have “record cash.” Well, yes, but they also have record debt, and instead of decreasing leverage levels they’re adding to them.

In short don’t believe the BS about “de-leveraging has occurred and we’re in good shape.” We most certainly have not de-levered, we most certainly are not in good shape, and the Federal borrowing is what, for the time being, has prevented reality from sticking it’s head under the corner of the tent.

Indeed, as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, the government has done everything it can to prevent deleveraging by the financial companies, and to re-lever up the economy to dizzying levels.

As Jim Quinn wrote last month:

You can’t open a newspaper or watch a business news network without seeing or hearing that consumers and businesses have been de-leveraging. The storyline as portrayed by the mainstream media is that consumers and corporations have seen the light and are paying off debts and living within their means. Austerity has broken out across the land.

***

Below is a chart that shows total credit market debt as a % of GDP. This chart captures all of the debt in the United States carried by households, corporations, and the government. The data can be found here:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/accessible/l1.htm

Total credit market debt peaked at $52.9 trillion in the 1st quarter of 2009. It is currently at $52.1 trillion. The GREAT DE-LEVERAGING of the United States has chopped our total debt by 1.5%. Move along. No more to see here. Time to go to the mall. Can anyone in their right mind look at this chart and think this financial crisis is over?

During the Great Depression of the 1930′s Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP peaked at 260% of GDP. As of today, it stands at 360% of GDP. The Federal Government is adding $4 billion per day to the National Debt. GDP is stagnant and will likely not grow for the next year. The storyline about corporate America being flush with cash is another lie. Corporations have ADDED $482 billion of debt since 2007. Corporate America has the largest amount of debt on their books in history at $7.2 trillion.

Indeed, as this chart courtesy of Zero Hedge confirms, traditional banking liabilities are higher than ever:

Granted, the liabilities of the shadow banking system have fallen off of a cliff.

But Tyler Durden argues:

The latest plunge in the shadow banking system is merely the most recent confirmation that the deleveraging in America is only just beginning.

So what does it all mean?

The government, big financial companies and the American consumer are all guilty of fighting deleveraging instead of voluntarily paying down their debt.

Like a junkie looking for “one last score”, the entire country has sold out our future to try to keep the artificial high going a little longer.

As I pointed out in July 2009:

Every independent economist has said that too much leverage was one of the main causes of the current economic crisis.However … the Federal Reserve and Treasury have, in fact, been encouraging massive leveraging.

***

Economists pushing voodoo theories justifying the tremendous increase in leverage were promoted and lionized, while those questioning such nonsense were ridiculed.In other words, economists and financial advisors – in academia, government and elsewhere – have been subservient to the financial elites, and have trumpeted the safeness and soundness of cdos, credit default swaps, and all of the rest of the shadow economy which allowed leverage to get so out of hand that it brought the world economy to its knees.

This is no different from the promotion of sports doctors to become team doctor when they are willing to inject various painkillers and feel-good drugs into an injured football star so he can finish the game. If he is willing to justify the treatment as being safe, he is promoted. If not, he’s out.

Economists have acted like team docs for the financial giants. When the football team doctor who gives the injured patient steroids and stimulants and tells him to get back in the game, it might be good for the team in the short-run, but the patient may end up severely injured for decades.

When economists have prescribed more leverage and told the banks to go trade like crazy to get the economy going again, it might be good for the banks in the short-run. But the consumer may end up being hurt for many years.

Using another analogy, this is like prescribing”hair of the dog” to the suffering alcoholic or heroin to the withdrawing junkie.

And as I wrote in August 2009:

In an essay entitled “The risk of a double-dip recession is rising”, Nouriel Roubini affirms two important points:

This is a crisis of solvency, not just liquidity, but true deleveraging has not begun yet because the losses of financial institutions have been socialised and put on government balance sheets. This limits the ability of banks to lend, households to spend and companies to invest…

The releveraging of the public sector through its build-up of large fiscal deficits risks crowding out a recovery in private sector spending.

In other words, Roubini is confirming what Anna Schwartz and many others have said: that the problem is insolvency, more than liquidity, that the government is fighting the last war and doing it all wrong, and that we should let the insolvent banks fail.

Roubini is also confirming that incurring huge deficits in order to have the federal government itself act as a super-bank is causing a reduction in – and “crowding out” a recovery in – private sector spending. [Roubini also said last year: "Deleveraging requires the writing down of debt as reflationary policies are not a free lunch and won't solve the debt overhang problem"].

As I have repeatedly pointed out, a recovery cannot occur until we move through the painful deleveraging process. But instead of allowing this to occur, the government is trying to increase leverage as a way to try to re-start the economy and save the insolvent banks. See this, this and this.

Of course, all of the massive government spending might also be putting governments themselves at risk . . . but that is another story.

Rumour: Project Milo cancelled Xbox 360 <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

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US committed to support Lebanon&#39;s Armed Forces - Arab <b>News</b>

At no time will Arab News attempt to alter the core meaning of a comment. 3. Reject the message, edit the message when the moderators judge it to be a personal attack, defamatory (or potentially defamatory), abusive, incite hatred or ...

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robert shumake

Rumour: Project Milo cancelled Xbox 360 <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

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US committed to support Lebanon&#39;s Armed Forces - Arab <b>News</b>

At no time will Arab News attempt to alter the core meaning of a comment. 3. Reject the message, edit the message when the moderators judge it to be a personal attack, defamatory (or potentially defamatory), abusive, incite hatred or ...

<b>News</b> Anchor Barbie: &#39;A flair for journalism -- and power pink <b>...</b>

Astronaut Barbie, Newborn Baby Doctor Barbie and Rock Star Barbie, get ready to answer some tough questions asked by journalist Barbie. The 125th -- and newest -- career path for Mattel's 51-year-old doll is news anchor, and she's ...

On September 2nd, 2010 I had the chance to be a part of an event that signaled a look inside of the type of programming that will lead to this economy turning around. The number one issue in the minds of all America and around the world is the economy. It seems as if the economy has stabilized but with the housing market still showing no signs of improvement, consumer spending still stagnant, top line growth for businesses being nonexistent, and the banks have made living room chairs of their surpluses of cash...the main thing that can fix all of these problems is more jobs! If we had more jobs there would be more people to purchase homes, more money to be spent, the top line of businesses could see growth making hiring possible, and more capital flowing around the economy making the banks less timid to lend money.

People are looking far and wide for job creation and job placement programming that are effective. As a community activist who constantly works with and refers people to programming that can assist someone to obtain gainful employment, I have seen many that are good and many that are not so good. I didn't expect to find one of the most successful programs that I have ever seen at a food bank of all places!

That is right...a food bank...the Community Food Bank of New Jersey. This is no ordinary food bank. Here are some of the things they have been able to accomplish:

• They have produced and served over 400 million pounds of food since its inception in the 1970s.

• They feed over one million people in New Jersey every year.

• They feed people in 19 of the 21 counties in New Jersey

• They average serving over 21 million pounds of food per year, but because of the recession last year they served over 34 million pounds of food.

• They feed over 1300 children per day Monday through Friday in their afterschool program and over 250,000 children per year.

• They effectively stretch each donated one dollar to purchase $11 worth of food.

One might be asking, "This is great but how does this provide jobs?" On September 2nd, Kareem Hertzog, Executive Director of The Optimum Institute of Economic Empowerment, and I were invited to keynote a graduation ceremony of their food service training academy. They take people from all walks of life that live in the New Jersey area and train them for careers in the food service industry. All of their graduates earn their skills by going through a rigorous 14 week, all hands on, on the job training program that effectively prepares the students for exactly what they will be doing on the job when they begin work. The classroom time is limited as they are too busy in the kitchens assisting to produce over 5,000 pounds of food per week. Over 90% of their students find employment because of their obtained experience in this program. The price for this program to the students is zero! They each were able to receive a $4,000 scholarship through a collaboration of private donors who all believe in the program and in the people in their community.

On this day they saw their largest graduating class to date...over 30 students. We saw students, many who were living in halfway houses, smiling bright because they were offered hope and access to actually find employment. They now had acquired culinary skills that they could take around the world into any restaurant. The smiles, the hugs, the outpour of family member support, and the promise of a new day were all things that touched my soul on this day because I was witnessing something truly tremendous. I thank Executive Chef Paul Kapner for allowing us to be a part of this day and urge you to please continue with your fabulous work. It is needed and you are truly making an impact.

Don't take my word for it...watch the video below to see the type of day we had.

→ Washington’s Blog

Everyone knows that the American consumer is deleveraging … living more frugally, and paying down debt.

Right?

Well, actually, as CNBC’s Diana Olick pointed out in April, many consumers are stopping their mortgage payments, and then blowing the money they would usually pay towards their mortgage on luxuries:

I opened up a big can of debate Monday, when I repeated some chatter around that consumer spending might be juiced by all those folks not paying their mortgages.

They have a little extra cash, so they’re spending it at the mall.

Some of you thought the premise had some validity, others, as is often the case, told me I was an idiot.

Well after the blog went up Erin Burnett put the question to Economist Robert Shiller, of the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index, during an interview on Street Signs.

He didn’t deny the possibility, and added:

“In some sense there might be a silver lining in that.”

Then I decided to ask Mark Zandi, of Moody’s Economy.com, who will often shoot down my more ridiculous theories.

I asked him if this was a crazy idea:

No, not crazy. With some 6 million homeowners not making mortgage payments (some loans are in trial mod programs and paying something but still in delinquency or default status) , this is probably freeing up roughly $8 billion in cash each month. Assuming this cash is spent (not too bad an assumption), it amounts to nearly one percent of consumer spending. The saving rate is also much lower as a result. The impact on spending growth is less significant as that is a function of the change in the number of homeowners not making payments.

I’m not sure I would say this is juicing up spending, but resulting in more spending than would be the case otherwise.

Many of these stressed homeowners (due to unemployment) are reducing their spending, just not as much as they would have if they were still making their mortgage payment.

Okay, so 6 million American homeowners are not being super frugal about either paying their mortgages or saving the money for another investment.

But surely the hundreds of millions of other Americans are reducing debt and deleveraging, right?

In fact, as the Wall Street Journal notes today, the overwhelming majority of debt reduction by consumers is not due to voluntary debt reduction, but due to defaulting on their debts and having them involuntarily written down by the banks:

The sharp decline in U.S. household debt over the past couple years has conjured up images of people across the country tightening their belts in order to pay down their mortgages and credit-card balances. A closer look, though, suggests a different picture: Some are defaulting, while the rest aren’t making much of a dent in their debts at all.

First, consider household debt. Over the two years ending June 2010, the total value of home-mortgage debt and consumer credit outstanding has fallen by about $610 billion, to $12.6 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s an annualized decline of about 2.3%, which is pretty impressive given the fact that such debts grew at an annualized rate in excess of 10% over the previous decade.

There are two ways, though, that the debts can decline: People can pay off existing loans, or they can renege on the loans, forcing the lender to charge them off. As it happens, the latter accounted for almost all the decline. Over the two years ending June 2010, banks and other lenders charged off a total of about $588 billion in mortgage and consumer loans, according to data from the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

That means consumers managed to shave off only $22 billion in debt through the kind of belt-tightening we typically envision. In other words, in the absence of defaults, they would have achieved an annualized decline of only 0.08%.

The Journal graphically shows that virtually all debt reduction is due to loan charge offs:

Karl Denninger notes:

From a peak in 2005 of $13.1 trillion in equity in residential real estate, that value has now diminished by approximately half to $6.67 trillion!Yet outstanding household debt has in fact increased from $11.7 trillion to $13.5 trillion today.

Folks, those who claim that we have “de-levered” are lying.

Not only has the consumer not de-levered but business is actually gearing up – putting the lie to any claim that they have “record cash.” Well, yes, but they also have record debt, and instead of decreasing leverage levels they’re adding to them.

In short don’t believe the BS about “de-leveraging has occurred and we’re in good shape.” We most certainly have not de-levered, we most certainly are not in good shape, and the Federal borrowing is what, for the time being, has prevented reality from sticking it’s head under the corner of the tent.

Indeed, as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, the government has done everything it can to prevent deleveraging by the financial companies, and to re-lever up the economy to dizzying levels.

As Jim Quinn wrote last month:

You can’t open a newspaper or watch a business news network without seeing or hearing that consumers and businesses have been de-leveraging. The storyline as portrayed by the mainstream media is that consumers and corporations have seen the light and are paying off debts and living within their means. Austerity has broken out across the land.

***

Below is a chart that shows total credit market debt as a % of GDP. This chart captures all of the debt in the United States carried by households, corporations, and the government. The data can be found here:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/accessible/l1.htm

Total credit market debt peaked at $52.9 trillion in the 1st quarter of 2009. It is currently at $52.1 trillion. The GREAT DE-LEVERAGING of the United States has chopped our total debt by 1.5%. Move along. No more to see here. Time to go to the mall. Can anyone in their right mind look at this chart and think this financial crisis is over?

During the Great Depression of the 1930′s Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP peaked at 260% of GDP. As of today, it stands at 360% of GDP. The Federal Government is adding $4 billion per day to the National Debt. GDP is stagnant and will likely not grow for the next year. The storyline about corporate America being flush with cash is another lie. Corporations have ADDED $482 billion of debt since 2007. Corporate America has the largest amount of debt on their books in history at $7.2 trillion.

Indeed, as this chart courtesy of Zero Hedge confirms, traditional banking liabilities are higher than ever:

Granted, the liabilities of the shadow banking system have fallen off of a cliff.

But Tyler Durden argues:

The latest plunge in the shadow banking system is merely the most recent confirmation that the deleveraging in America is only just beginning.

So what does it all mean?

The government, big financial companies and the American consumer are all guilty of fighting deleveraging instead of voluntarily paying down their debt.

Like a junkie looking for “one last score”, the entire country has sold out our future to try to keep the artificial high going a little longer.

As I pointed out in July 2009:

Every independent economist has said that too much leverage was one of the main causes of the current economic crisis.However … the Federal Reserve and Treasury have, in fact, been encouraging massive leveraging.

***

Economists pushing voodoo theories justifying the tremendous increase in leverage were promoted and lionized, while those questioning such nonsense were ridiculed.In other words, economists and financial advisors – in academia, government and elsewhere – have been subservient to the financial elites, and have trumpeted the safeness and soundness of cdos, credit default swaps, and all of the rest of the shadow economy which allowed leverage to get so out of hand that it brought the world economy to its knees.

This is no different from the promotion of sports doctors to become team doctor when they are willing to inject various painkillers and feel-good drugs into an injured football star so he can finish the game. If he is willing to justify the treatment as being safe, he is promoted. If not, he’s out.

Economists have acted like team docs for the financial giants. When the football team doctor who gives the injured patient steroids and stimulants and tells him to get back in the game, it might be good for the team in the short-run, but the patient may end up severely injured for decades.

When economists have prescribed more leverage and told the banks to go trade like crazy to get the economy going again, it might be good for the banks in the short-run. But the consumer may end up being hurt for many years.

Using another analogy, this is like prescribing”hair of the dog” to the suffering alcoholic or heroin to the withdrawing junkie.

And as I wrote in August 2009:

In an essay entitled “The risk of a double-dip recession is rising”, Nouriel Roubini affirms two important points:

This is a crisis of solvency, not just liquidity, but true deleveraging has not begun yet because the losses of financial institutions have been socialised and put on government balance sheets. This limits the ability of banks to lend, households to spend and companies to invest…

The releveraging of the public sector through its build-up of large fiscal deficits risks crowding out a recovery in private sector spending.

In other words, Roubini is confirming what Anna Schwartz and many others have said: that the problem is insolvency, more than liquidity, that the government is fighting the last war and doing it all wrong, and that we should let the insolvent banks fail.

Roubini is also confirming that incurring huge deficits in order to have the federal government itself act as a super-bank is causing a reduction in – and “crowding out” a recovery in – private sector spending. [Roubini also said last year: "Deleveraging requires the writing down of debt as reflationary policies are not a free lunch and won't solve the debt overhang problem"].

As I have repeatedly pointed out, a recovery cannot occur until we move through the painful deleveraging process. But instead of allowing this to occur, the government is trying to increase leverage as a way to try to re-start the economy and save the insolvent banks. See this, this and this.

Of course, all of the massive government spending might also be putting governments themselves at risk . . . but that is another story.

robert shumake

Rumour: Project Milo cancelled Xbox 360 <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

Read our Xbox 360 news of Rumour: Project Milo cancelled.

US committed to support Lebanon&#39;s Armed Forces - Arab <b>News</b>

At no time will Arab News attempt to alter the core meaning of a comment. 3. Reject the message, edit the message when the moderators judge it to be a personal attack, defamatory (or potentially defamatory), abusive, incite hatred or ...

<b>News</b> Anchor Barbie: &#39;A flair for journalism -- and power pink <b>...</b>

Astronaut Barbie, Newborn Baby Doctor Barbie and Rock Star Barbie, get ready to answer some tough questions asked by journalist Barbie. The 125th -- and newest -- career path for Mattel's 51-year-old doll is news anchor, and she's ...

robert shumake

Rumour: Project Milo cancelled Xbox 360 <b>News</b> - Page 1 | Eurogamer.net

Read our Xbox 360 news of Rumour: Project Milo cancelled.

US committed to support Lebanon&#39;s Armed Forces - Arab <b>News</b>

At no time will Arab News attempt to alter the core meaning of a comment. 3. Reject the message, edit the message when the moderators judge it to be a personal attack, defamatory (or potentially defamatory), abusive, incite hatred or ...

<b>News</b> Anchor Barbie: &#39;A flair for journalism -- and power pink <b>...</b>

Astronaut Barbie, Newborn Baby Doctor Barbie and Rock Star Barbie, get ready to answer some tough questions asked by journalist Barbie. The 125th -- and newest -- career path for Mattel's 51-year-old doll is news anchor, and she's ...

Stock Making Money

What passes for business reporting in the United States is too often a series of breathless reports about the stock market. When the Dow rises precipitously, as it did today (Wednesday), the business press predicts an end to the Great Recession. When the stock market plummets, as it did last week, the Great Recession is said to be worsening.

Pay no attention. The stock market has as much to do with the real economy as the weather has to do with geology. Day by day there's no relationship at all. Over time, weather and geology interact but the results aren't evident for many years. The biggest impact of the weather is on peoples' moods, as are the daily ups and downs of the market.

The real economy is jobs and paychecks, what people buy and what they sell. And the real economy -- even viewed from a worldwide perspective -- is as precarious as ever, perhaps more so.

Today's rally was triggered by news that one of China's official measures of its growth -- its Purchasing Managers Index -- rose. The index had been in decline for three straight months.

Why should an obscure measurement on the other side of the world cause stock markets in New York, London, and Frankfurt to rally? Because China is so large and its needs seemingly limitless that its growth has been about the only reliable source of global demand.

Many big American companies have been showing profits because they're doing ever more business in China while cutting payrolls at home. American consumers aren't buying much of anything because they've lost their jobs or are worried about losing them, and are still trying to get out from under a huge debt load (the latest figures show more consumer debt delinquent now than last year and a surge in personal bankruptcies). The U.S. housing market is growing worse, auto and retail sales are dropping, and the ranks of the jobless continue to swell.

Europe is in almost as much a mess. The problem there isn't just or even mainly that Greece and other nations on the "periphery" have too much public debt. A bigger problem is European consumers aren't buying nearly enough to generate more jobs. Unemployment remains high, and the trend is bad. Manufacturing growth there has slowed to its weakest pace in six months. Yet bizarrely, Europe's large economies -- Britain, Germany, and France -- are paring back their public budgets. It's exactly the wrong time, and a recipe for disaster.

Germany's so-called "job miracle" (as Chancellor Angela Merkel calls it) is more mirage than miracle. Most of the gains in employment there have come from part-time jobs, often at low pay. Average annual net income per German employee continues to drop. This explains why domestic demand there is so sluggish and why Germany is desperately dependent on its exports of machinery and manufacturing components to Asia, especially China.

Meanwhile, Japan, now the world's third-largest economy, is a basket case. Japanese consumers aren't buying much of anything, and why would they? The country is still in the grip of a deflationary cycle that shows no end. Japanese consumers reason if they can buy it cheaper next week there's no reason to buy now. Basically the only thing keeping Japan's economy going are its exports of cars and electronic components to China.

Australia is booming, but look closely and you see the same buyer. Australia is making a boatload of money selling its minerals and raw materials to China (Australia is fast becoming one big Chinese mine shaft). The Brazilian economy is soaring. Why? Exports of wheat and cattle to China. Middle East oil producers are getting richer. Why? China's insatiable thirst for oil.

Elsewhere around the globe the picture is as uncertain. Much of Pakistan is under water. Much of the rest of the Middle East is under tyrannical or corrupt regimes. Russia has suffered such a dry spell it's hoarding wheat. Despite its wealthy few, India's masses are still terribly poor.

The stock market could plunge tomorrow or the next day because the world's economic fundamentals are so precarious.

The global economy cannot be sustained by one big, voracious nation -- especially one that's suffering bouts of civil unrest, actively repressing dissent, suffocating under a blanket of pollution and coping with other environmental hazards, and whose biggest companies are run by the state.

This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

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What passes for business reporting in the United States is too often a series of breathless reports about the stock market. When the Dow rises precipitously, as it did today (Wednesday), the business press predicts an end to the Great Recession. When the stock market plummets, as it did last week, the Great Recession is said to be worsening.

Pay no attention. The stock market has as much to do with the real economy as the weather has to do with geology. Day by day there's no relationship at all. Over time, weather and geology interact but the results aren't evident for many years. The biggest impact of the weather is on peoples' moods, as are the daily ups and downs of the market.

The real economy is jobs and paychecks, what people buy and what they sell. And the real economy -- even viewed from a worldwide perspective -- is as precarious as ever, perhaps more so.

Today's rally was triggered by news that one of China's official measures of its growth -- its Purchasing Managers Index -- rose. The index had been in decline for three straight months.

Why should an obscure measurement on the other side of the world cause stock markets in New York, London, and Frankfurt to rally? Because China is so large and its needs seemingly limitless that its growth has been about the only reliable source of global demand.

Many big American companies have been showing profits because they're doing ever more business in China while cutting payrolls at home. American consumers aren't buying much of anything because they've lost their jobs or are worried about losing them, and are still trying to get out from under a huge debt load (the latest figures show more consumer debt delinquent now than last year and a surge in personal bankruptcies). The U.S. housing market is growing worse, auto and retail sales are dropping, and the ranks of the jobless continue to swell.

Europe is in almost as much a mess. The problem there isn't just or even mainly that Greece and other nations on the "periphery" have too much public debt. A bigger problem is European consumers aren't buying nearly enough to generate more jobs. Unemployment remains high, and the trend is bad. Manufacturing growth there has slowed to its weakest pace in six months. Yet bizarrely, Europe's large economies -- Britain, Germany, and France -- are paring back their public budgets. It's exactly the wrong time, and a recipe for disaster.

Germany's so-called "job miracle" (as Chancellor Angela Merkel calls it) is more mirage than miracle. Most of the gains in employment there have come from part-time jobs, often at low pay. Average annual net income per German employee continues to drop. This explains why domestic demand there is so sluggish and why Germany is desperately dependent on its exports of machinery and manufacturing components to Asia, especially China.

Meanwhile, Japan, now the world's third-largest economy, is a basket case. Japanese consumers aren't buying much of anything, and why would they? The country is still in the grip of a deflationary cycle that shows no end. Japanese consumers reason if they can buy it cheaper next week there's no reason to buy now. Basically the only thing keeping Japan's economy going are its exports of cars and electronic components to China.

Australia is booming, but look closely and you see the same buyer. Australia is making a boatload of money selling its minerals and raw materials to China (Australia is fast becoming one big Chinese mine shaft). The Brazilian economy is soaring. Why? Exports of wheat and cattle to China. Middle East oil producers are getting richer. Why? China's insatiable thirst for oil.

Elsewhere around the globe the picture is as uncertain. Much of Pakistan is under water. Much of the rest of the Middle East is under tyrannical or corrupt regimes. Russia has suffered such a dry spell it's hoarding wheat. Despite its wealthy few, India's masses are still terribly poor.

The stock market could plunge tomorrow or the next day because the world's economic fundamentals are so precarious.

The global economy cannot be sustained by one big, voracious nation -- especially one that's suffering bouts of civil unrest, actively repressing dissent, suffocating under a blanket of pollution and coping with other environmental hazards, and whose biggest companies are run by the state.

This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

Gawker Media Community Policy

These are our sites, and we reserve the right to moderate the discussion. The basic rules are standard: An attack on authors or other commenters is unlikely to make you popular. Think before you disparage social or ethnic groups. Don't spam. Don't post pornography or copyrighted imagery. Stay on topic.

That said, the community policy of Gawker Media is forgiving. If your criticism is articulate, it will likely get through. We dole it out; we can take it. What do we mean by articulate? Support your point with argument, facts and citations. Good grammar and spelling also help.

Got questions? Need answers? See our FAQ and site-specific community guidelines.

Close

robert shumake

Facebook Making Changes to <b>News</b> Feed, Requests, Bookmarks to <b>...</b>

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Official Google Blog: Google <b>News</b> turns eight

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Facebook Making Changes to <b>News</b> Feed, Requests, Bookmarks to <b>...</b>

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Official Google Blog: Google <b>News</b> turns eight

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